MY PREDICTION WAS ACCURATE
The art of prediction nowadays is no longer magical but scientific and I learned
this over a decade ago through the 1991 New York Times bestseller by Pat
Robinson’s “The New World Order”. Mr. Robinson made no less than ten major and profound
predictions to happen in the world of economics and governance before the year
2000 and he was 90% accurate. In any given situation, once you study the
subject well and you are abreast of its progress and development, you would be
able to pre-empt the direction it is likely to take with increasing accuracy. Last
week, on the eve of the American elections, I wrote an article “WOULD TRUMP LOOSE?”
where I predicted that the incumbent president Donald Trump would lose. I responded
to my question with an affirmative and cited my reasons. The pollsters had put
Biden consistently since the beginning of the pandemic ahead of Trump on
national polls with a wide margin of between 8-9%. On the swing states too, there
is a margin of between 0-2%. Had there been no pandemic I think Trump would
have been a tough opponent to beat, considering just before the outbreak,
American economy was at its highest rise and employment at its lowest in 70
years. Trump’s handling of the corona virus was so poor that America became the
epicenter of the pandemic with the highest lost of lives and infection.
On the other hand, the way Trump handled
critical issues like immigration, race relations, his unilateralism, unguarded
statements etc had earned him more enemies within and outside America. He fired
many of his people from the white house and the administration like no other
president in the past. That had made him lost key and critical supporters (Take
John Bolton) that started working against his re-election. The way he divided
America also worked against him as opponents are looked upon as enemies which
heated the polity and entrenched the polarity. The economic downturn has
impacted on so many lives especially the youth, thus we have seen the biggest
mobilization of youth voters in this election which I, like everyone that is
following the election, can discern the possibility of being a record election
in terms of voter turnout. The black lives matter protests after the extrajudicial
killing of George Floyd enraged colored peoples and minorities across American and
they turned out enmasse to vote him out. Biden has made history with the highest
votes ever received by a candidate in the American elections and the elections
too had the highest voter turnout as well as the republican votes. I also
predicted that Biden’s gap in the overall votes against Trump would be higher
than the gap Trump gave Hilary in 2016 (we are now having over four million
votes and still counting, between them, higher than the 3.5 million votes
Hilary gave Trump). My prediction on the Electoral College, that it would be a
narrow margin, wasn’t quite that, considering at the end of the day Biden is
going to get over 300 electoral votes with as many as over 50 votes difference.
At last Trump would join the
ignoble club of one time president, an anathema to any politician in America
but he will have the consolation, which I also pointed out, of packing the Supreme
Court with conservative judges. He appointed three in his four years and it
tilted the balance heavily. You cannot appreciate this legacy of Trump until
you understand that the Supreme Court is originally conceived by the American
founding fathers as a means to implement policies that couldn’t get through either
the legislature or the executives. We have seen the landmark gay marriage
ruling during the Obama administration, something that couldn’t pass through a
legislature that has republicans as majority. The Supreme Court justices’
serves for life and with the 6 conservative justices against the 3 liberals, we
are set on having conservative supreme court for a generation at least.
Now that the Democrats are here we
should brace up for America’s rejoining the climate change accord, talks on denuclearization
of Iran, military build up in flash points around the world, rejoining WHO and
the general revival of multilateralism.
The American politics had always
been like this, that is periodically the Republicans used to stir murky waters,
heat the polity and the Democrats will come preaching unity, pacification etc.
Richard Nixon, a republican, was the first president to resign in 1974 over the
Watergate scandal. Jimmy Carter, a democrat replaced him, he also enjoyed one
term due to the American hostage crisis in Iran during the 1979 Ayatollah
Islamic revolution. Ronald Reagan, a republican, succeeded Carter and enjoyed
two terms until 1988 when Bush Senior, his own vice president succeeds him. The
first gulf war cost Bush his re-election and Clinton, a democrat, succeeded him
and served two term of economic prosperity. Bush junior came in after a heated
campaign and elections that has to be decided by the Supreme Court. The most tumultuous
two terms, were indeed Bush junior’s, as we saw the 9/11, Afghan and Iraqi
wars. Obama succeeded Bush and stabilize America until when Trump came. We have
seen how Trump is edged out as Biden became the 46th president of
the United States. The swing between the republicans and democrats in American
elections were like movie scripts and the only difference between the two in
implementing American domestic and foreign policy is about procedure not essence.
The essence has always been the same with different tactics until when Donald
Trump came. I believe Biden and the Democratic Party will try as much as they
can to bring back that status quo that was disrupted by Donald Trump.
America is lucky in dismissing
Trump as China under him has all the advantages of clinching the coveted position
of most powerful economy in the world. If the Americans will re-invent their
lost values in education and research, which China is concentrating on now,
they might have the chance of continuing their leadership position for a few
more years, as China is certainly poised to overtake them sooner or later.
China ascendency scares me for many reasons which are not in the purview of
this article. May God help humanity in the decades that are coming as we are
collectively facing grave threats in climate change, growing nationalism,
increased poverty and wealth disparity between nations and individuals.
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